An analysis of results from the Washington Post / Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation / Harvard University Moral Values Survey, by Robert J. Blendon, a professor at Harvard's School of Public Health and John F. Kennedy School of Government and John Benson, deputy director of the Harvard Opinion Research Program at the School of Public Health.

1. The moral-values issue has become important politically because an overwhelming majority (88%) of those whose voting decisions are determined by their views on "moral values" are dissatisfied with moral values in this country, and most (74%) see government policies as being part of the problem. A majority (62%) of moral-values voters see religion as being part of the cure. ( Table 1 )

2. Moral-values voters (17% of registered voters) are disproportionately Republican (53%), conservative (61%), born-again (54%), and highly religious (64% say that religion is either the most important thing in their lives or extremely important). ( Table 2 )

3. Moral-values voters differ on a large number of issues from registered voters who do not vote based primarily on moral values. The issues that most set moral-values voters apart from other registered voters tend to involve elements of religious belief and threats to the traditional family. The four issues where moral-values voters differ most (in each case, by more than 20 percentage points) are school vouchers, the circumstances under which abortion should be legal, expanding women's access to early abortion options like RU-486, and physician-assisted suicide. ( Table 3 )

4. Majorities of moral-values voters identify four issues that they both think of as moral issues and also say would be among the most important in deciding their vote: the example a president sets by his personal behavior (75%); abortion (58%); the break-up of the family (57%); and sex and violence in the media (53%).

None of these four issues are considered by a majority of non-moral values voters to be important moral issues in deciding their vote. Expanding health insurance coverage to all Americans (56%) is the top moral issue for non-moral values voters.

Campaign finance reform is not considered a top moral voting issue by either moral-values or non-moral values voters in this election. In addition, concerns about income inequality, the fairness of the current tax system, and the death penalty are not seen by a majority of either voting group as important moral issues in their election choices. ( Table 4 )

5. Looking at presidential trial heat results among all registered voters masks important differences. Gore and Bush are virtually tied among all registered voters. However, among those who say that moral values will be one of two most important issues in the presidential vote, Bush leads by more than 50 percentage points. Among registered voters who do not say moral values is one of the top two issues, Gore leads by 15 points.

The same pattern holds true when registered voters are asked which candidate and which party would be better at improving the nation's moral values. The two candidates and the two parties are basically tied among all registered voters, while Bush and the Republicans have a huge lead among moral-values voters; Gore and the Democrats have a substantial lead among non-moral values voters.

Similarly, moral-values voters give Bush and the Republicans a very large lead as the candidate or party more sympathetic to religion and religious people. Gore and the Democrats lead on this measure among non-moral values voters. ( Table 5 )

6. Gore moral-values voters and Bush moral-values voters have quite different attitudes on a number of issues. The largest gaps (all more than 20 percentage points) are on: hate crimes legislation for gays and lesbians, the circumstances under which abortion should be legal, school vouchers, the death penalty, and expanding women's access to early abortion options like RU-486. On two of these issues - hate crimes legislation for gays and lesbians, and access to early abortion options such as RU-486 - a majority of Bush moral-values voters take a position not held by a majority of Gore moral-values voters.

Majorities of both Gore and Bush moral-values voters agree that the federal government should be involved in promoting moral values and regulating sex and violence in the media. ( Table 6 )

7. Majorities of Bush moral-values voters identify four issues that they both think of as moral issues and also say would be among the most important in deciding their vote: the example a president sets by his personal behavior (84%); abortion (61%); the break-up of the family (60%); and sex and violence in the media (54%).

None of these four issues are considered by a majority of Gore moral-values voters to be important moral issues in deciding their vote. Expanding health insurance coverage to all Americans (64%) is the top moral issue for Gore moral-values voters.

Table 1 - Why Moral Values?
Moral-values Voters vs. Other Registered Voters
 																								Total 	 Moral- 	 Not
				 		All 	 Values 	 moral
 						Voters 	 v oters 	 values		
(Q6b) Dissatisfied with moral values in this country 	 68% 88% 	 64%%
(Q31) Government policies have
 weakened Americans' moral values				 48% 74% 43%
(Q48) In order to improve values and 
morality in this country, we must put
more emphasis on religion : 					 45% 62% 42%


Table 2 - Key Demographics of Moral-Values Voters :
  									% of Moral- Not % of group-
 		total values moral that "votes
 		voters voters values values"
TOTAL REG. VOTERS 17%
By unleaned party:
 Republicans 30% 53% 26% 30%
 Democrats 	 38% 18% 42% 8%
 Independents 	 23% 20% 23% 15%
By leaned party:
 Repub. 41% 67% 35% 29%
 Demo. 47% 21% 52% 8%
By ideology:
 Liber. 19% 9% 21% 8%
 Moder. 46% 29% 49% 11%
 Conserv. 33% 61% 27% 32%
By born-again:
 Born-again 36% 54% 33% 26%
By importance of religion 
in your own life:
 Most / extremely
 important 44% 64% 40% 25%
 Very important 25% 20% 27% 13%
 Somewhat / not 
 too important 30% 17% 33% 10%
By gender:
 Men 48% 47% 48% 17%
 Women 52% 53% 52% 17%
By age:
 18-29 15% 14% 15% 17%
 30-49 44% 47% 43% 19%
 50-64 22% 21% 23% 17%
 65+ 19% 18% 20% 16%
By region:
 Northeast 19% 17% 20% 15%
 North Central 23% 26% 22% 20%
 South 38% 39% 37% 18%
 West 20% 18% 21% 15%




Table 3 - Attitudes on Policy Issues
Moral-values Voters vs. Other Registered Voters

 					Total Moral- Not
 reg. values moral
 voters voters values
(Q19) Favor school vouchers : 49% 69% 45%
(Q21) Abortion should not be legal or 
should be legal only in cases of rape,
incest, or to save mother's life : 57% 77% 54%
(Q23) Oppose expanding women's access
 to early abortion options like RU-486 43% 62% 39%
(Q17) Oppose physician-assisted suicide : 45% 62% 41%
(Q25) Oppose federal law imposing additional
penalties on people who commit crimes 
out of prejudice toward gays and lesbians: 40% 55% 37% 
(Q12) Federal government should be
involved in promoting moral values : 59% 72% 56%
(Q14) Federal government should
 regulate sex and violence in media : 46% 59% 43%
(Q20) Allow prayer in public schools : 73% 84% 71%
(Q15) Cut off welfare after 5 years if 
willing to work but can't find job : 57% 64% 56%
(Q16) Base hiring, promotion, and 
admissions strictly on merit and
qualifications other than race : 86% 92% 85%

(Q18) Favor death penalty for murder : 66% 71% 65%
(Q13) Limit money people can give to candidates : 61% 58% 62%
Table 4 - What Issues Registered Voters Consider as
Moral Issues and Which Would Most Influence Their Vote :
Moral-values voters vs. other registered voters
 					 					 Total Moral- Not
 		 		 reg. values moral
 		 		 voters voters values
Expanding health care coverage
 to all Americans 		 53% (1) 34% (5) 56% (1)
The example a president sets
 by his personal behavior 	 46% (2) 75% (1) 41% (3)
Protecting the environment 42% (3) 25% (8t) 45% (2)
Abortion 		 37% (4) 58% (2) 33% (6t)
Sex and violence in the media 36% (5) 53% (4) 33% (6t)
Gun control 		 35% (6t) 25% (8t) 37% (4)
Inequality between whites
 and minorities 	 35% (6t) 32% (6) 36% (5)
Break-up of the family 		 33% (8) 57% (3) 28% (9t)
Taxes and the tax system 32% (9) 27% (7) 33% (6t)
Differences in income 	 	 26% (10) 14% (12) 28% (9t)
Death penalty 		 23% (11) 20% (10) 24%(11t)
Campaign finance reform		 22% (12) 16% (11) 24%(11t)




 Table 5 - The Presidential Campaign
Moral-values Voters vs. Other Registered Voters :
 												 Total Moral- Not
						 reg. values moral
 				 voters voters values
Presidential vote (unleaned)
	 Gore 	 43% 16% 49%
	 Bush 	 40% 68% 34%
	 Nader 	 3% 2% 3%
	 Buchanan 	 1% 2% 1%
Presidential vote (leaned)
	 Gore 	 		 47% 19% 53%
	 Bush 	 		 43% 72% 37%
	 Nader 	 	 	 3% 2% 4%
	 Buchanan 	 1% 2% 1%
Candidate better at improving
 the nation's moral values:
	 Gore 	 		 42% 17% 47%
	 Bush 	 43% 71% 37%
Ticket better at improving
 the nation's moral values:
	 Gore/Lieberman 	 49% 23% 54%
	 Bush/Cheney 	 39% 68% 34%
Party better at improving
 the nation's moral values:
	 Democrats 	 38% 17% 43%
	 Republicans 	 39% 66% 34%
Candidate more sympathetic to 
religion and religious people:
	 Gore 		 43% 20% 48%
	 Bush 	 36% 63% 31%
Party more sympathetic to 
religion and religious people:
	 Democrats 	 41% 18% 46%
	 Republicans 	 36% 62% 31%
 


Table 6 - Attitudes on Policy Issues
 Gore vs. Bush moral-values voters
( Statistically significant differences, rank-ordered by % point difference :)
 	 	 Gore Bush
 	 		 Total moral- moral-
 		 reg. values values
 	 	 voters voters voters
(Q25) Oppose fed. law imposing additional 
penalties on people who commit crimes out 
of prejudice toward gays and lesbians : 40% 31% 62% 
(Q21)Abortion should not be legal or should
be legal only in cases of rape, incest,
or to save mother's life :			57% 56% 83%
(Q19) Favor school vouchers :		 49% 52% 74%
(Q18) Favor death penalty for murder : 66% 55% 77%
(Q23) Oppose expanding women's access
 to early abortion options like RU-486 : 43% 46% 67%
(Q16) Base hiring, promotion, and 
admissions strictly on merit and
 qualifications other than race : 86% 76% 96%
(Q17) Oppose physician-assisted suicide : 45% 52% 66%
(Q15) Cut off welfare after 5 years if willing to work but can't find job : 57% 54% 68%
(Q20)Allow prayer in public schools : 73% 76% 86%
(Q12) Federal government should be involved in promoting moral values : 59% 75% 72%
(Q14) Federal government should regulate sex and violence in media :		 46% 59% 60%
(Q13) Limit money people can give to candidates :				 61% 58% 58%
 Table 7 - What Issues Registered Voters Consider as Moral
 Issues and Which Would Most Influence Their Voting
 Gore vs. Bush moral-values voters
 						 							Gore Bush
 Total moral- moral-
 reg. values values
 voters voters voters
Expanding health care coverage
 to all Americans 	 53% (1) 64% (1) 26% (5t)
The example a president sets
 by his personal behavior 46% (2) 49% (2) 84% (1)
Protecting the environment 	 42% (3) 47% (4t) 18% (10)
Abortion 37% (4) 47% (4t) 61% (2)
Sex and violence in the media 36% (5) 48% (3) 54% (4)
Gun control 35% (6t) 45% (8) 20% (8)
Inequality between whites
 and minorities 	 35% (6t) 47% (4t) 26% (5t)
Break-up of the family 33% (8) 47% (4t) 60% (3)
Taxes and the tax system 32% (9) 31% (9) 26% (5t)
Differences in income 26% (10) 27% (10) 10% (12)
Death penalty 	 23% (11) 21% (11t) 19% (9)
Campaign finance reform 22% (12) 21% (11t) 12% (11)

Source: Washington Post / Kaiser Family Foundation / Harvard, September 2000
(Q##) refers to the Question # in the survey.
(Ray believes that "leaned party" means "leaning towards that party")